FINANCIAL TOOLS FOR UKRAINE'S ENERGY TRANSITION

Supported by the International Renaissance Foundation and the European Union under the “EU4USociety” Project, the report conducted by the Ukrainian Sustainable Fund provides a comprehensive overview of the available and potential tools for financing the post-war recovery of Ukraine.

INTRODUCTION

The need for financing and decarbonizing Ukraine’s energy industry is just as urgent as it is undervalued. Since 2014, the country has managed to attract over EUR 8 billion in green investments and multiplied RES capacities almost ten times. Having adopted the sustainable approach, Ukraine also scaled its cooperation with the EU by ratifying the Paris Agreements and entering the EU4Climate Programme, helping the governments implement effective climate-related policies. The goals of achieving a 42% CO2 reduction compared to 1990 by 2030, while covering 50% of the country’s electricity needs with nuclear power, 25% — with renewable sources, and 13% — with hydropower have been set, and the transition has begun.

However, despite the rapid growth of renewable capacities (between 2014 and 2020, Ukraine has opened 9,223 MW of additional RES projects), the decarbonization process requires more attention. While the Ukrainian government proudly announces overachieving the 11% RES share in the energy mix (in 2020, it has reached 12.4%), Ukraine still falls behind on its CO2 reduction targets. According to the Climate Action Tracker analytics, the country’s current sustainability policy framework is “insufficient” and the 2030 goals are too unambitious for the Paris Agreement’s targets. Meanwhile, even the existing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), which include climate-neutrality by 2060, are hard to achieve given the lack of organizational and financial mechanisms in place.

Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic and the russian invasion of Ukraine have imposed serious economic challenges and caused the destruction of critical energy infrastructure. Now, the question of shifting towards renewable energy is vital as never before.

Hence, it is crucial to create financial infrastructure inside Ukraine, to give a second life to the stock and commodities exchange, update banking and financial regulations in line with current SDG trends, and create effective risk management and supervision under reconstruction finance. This report lists and explores all existing green finance tools, as well as evaluate their applicability in Ukraine. It also outlines some steps to be taken in the near future to achieve and secure Ukraine’s position as a green energy and green finance hub of Europe.

GREEN STOCKS

Green stocks are, perhaps, the most obvious solution when it comes to green finance accumulation. This mechanism essentially involves purchasing shares from companies that contribute to sustainable development directly (through implementing green projects) or indirectly (through adopting responsible practices within their systems).

GREEN BONDS

Green bonds are one of the most popular tools for generating green finance. Borrowers around the world issue securities to finance sustainable projects, while investors receive profits when the bonds mature. In 2021, the global issuance level reached over $520 billion, which was a 75% increase from 2020. The total cumulative market for green bonds is valued at over $1.8 trillion.

GREEN LOANS

Green loans are cheaper and smaller in volume alternative  of green bonds. This is also an instrument to raise finance specifically for financing sustainable projects. Over the past four years, green loans have risen from $342m to over $78bn in volume of issuance, which is a nearly 200-fold increase.

GREEN CERTIFICATES

Green certificates are a relatively new tool for securing green finance. Also referred to as Renewable Energy Certificates, Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROC), or Guarantees of Origin, green certificates exist to confirm that electricity has been generated by a sustainable energy source.

GREEN BANKS

Green banks are another rapidly growing green finance mechanism. These are usually publicly owned, commercially operated entities that aim to accumulate and direct domestic funds into environmentally responsible investment projects. Today, green banks already exist in 36 countries that account for more than half of the global GDP and almost half of the world’s CO2 emissions.

CARBON TAX

Carbon tax is a price set by the government that polluting companies must pay for each ton of CO2 emissions. By applying a carbon tax, the state, on the one hand, encourages companies to switch to clean fuel by spending a minimum of money, and on the other hand, creates conditions under which companies must adapt technologically in order to reduce emissions and remain competitive on the market. 

GREEN GRANTS

Green grants are another way to directly attract funds for sustainable development projects. This mechanism is the most attractive for the grantees because it does not involve the transfer of ownership (as in the case of stocks) or financial obligations (as in the case of a loan). Instead of direct dividends, the investor benefits from improving their own image as a facilitator of green initiatives.

GREEN FUNDS

Green funds include venture and mutual funds that help impact investments and diversify risks. As for the latter purpose, Green ETFs become increasingly popular worldwide. Over just six months in 2021, 16 green ETFs performed better than the S&P 500, growing at a rate between 11% and 29.3%, while the S&P 500 index rose by 10.8%.

GREEN AUCTIONS

Green auctions differ from conventional ones because the winners are the companies that are ready to implement the projects with the greatest capacity at the lowest price. Such a tool is beneficial for the state, as it allows companies to be compared in terms of efficiency, technologies, and proposed prices for electricity, and also allows investors to choose the most trustworthy suppliers in order to reduce risks.

GREEN EXCHANGE

Green exchange is a new type of platform for trading green, social, and sustainable securities. The first green exchange(LGX) was created by Luxembourg Stock Exchange in 2016 as a direct contribution to the global climate goals defined in the Paris Climate Agreement and the UN SDGs.

GREEN FINANCIAL CENTERS

Green financial centers are another module of financial infrastructure designed to mobilize private capital. Globally, regulatory and market efforts are increasingly channeling savings toward the much-needed constructive investments required to underpin sustainable development.

ECO-INDUSTRIAL PARKS

Eco-industrial parks aim to incorporate industries into society by creating shared eco opportunities, improved ecosystems, and responsible business practices. They also serve as an incentive for FDI, leading to industries’ prosperity and increased employment opportunities.

PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PROJECT

The success of Ukraine’s post-war recovery will largely depend on the future of the country’s energy sector. Green energy transition must become key in forming Ukraine’s new economy, and in order to finance all the decarbonization steps outlined in the new NDC and the 2035 Energy Strategy, the government must develop a whole new field in Ukraine — that of green (or sustainable) finance. 

Sustainable investment is a trend that now spreads around the world and includes investments from different sources that are dedicated to reducing emissions and waste, as well as increasing countries’ energy efficiency. Since 2014, the volume of green FDI in Ukraine comprised 30% of the total invested EUR 8 billion. Currently, RES projects in Ukraine are supported by Acciona (Spain), Emergy (Norway), Scatec (Norway), Total Eren (France), GS Engineering & Construction Corp (South Korea), CNBM (China), Guris (Turkey), Nebras (Qatar) and other global companies, as well as by EBRD, EIB, IFC, Proparco, FMO, IFU, BSTDB, and DFC. 

However, in 2021, the updated NDC suggested that achieving Ukraine’s sustainability goals will cost around EUR 102 billion in capital investment by 2030, and now, 8 months through the full-scale invasion, this figure is expected to rise dramatically. The only way to secure such amount of funding is to develop sufficient green finance mechanisms to offer reliable and lucrative opportunities for investors. 

The report shows that at the moment, the only effective green mechanism in Ukraine is the green tariff that has helped attract USD 4.5 billion as investments into wind and solar power in 2019 alone. However, this tool is unsustainable in the long run, since the government lacks resources to finance constantly increasing amounts of renewable power and already faces debts of almost USD 2 billion for the electricity market. The mechanism that is particularly promising in Ukraine’s case is green bonds, and the government is working leaps and bounds to offer a transparent legal framework for trading securities. However, all of the listed mechanisms can be useful for Ukraine sooner or later, and if implemented properly, Ukraine can not only pour billions of dollars into the post-war budget, but also position itself as a subject of the global climate change mitigation process, hence using its contribution towards decarbonization as a leverage in geopolitical security negotiations.

 

 This publication was produced with the support of the European Union and the International Renaissance Foundation within the framework of the EU4USociety project. Its contents are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union and the International Renaissance Foundation